Deloitte: Holiday shoppers expected to increase spending

NEW YORK — Amid new optimism for the economy, consumers plan to increase spending this holiday season with record spending intentions. This is according to Deloitte’s 39th annual Holiday Retail Survey, released Tuesday which examines consumer behavior and sentiment ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. Overall, shoppers plan to spend on more than just gifts and are experiencing the holidays in new ways. 

Consumers are preparing to celebrate the holidays with a new perspective on what makes this time of year special. For 39 years,Deloitte has studied consumer behavior and sentiment ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. The “2024 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey” examines what retailers can likely expect from consumers shopping for the holidays. According to this year’s study, while holiday shoppers are more optimistic and willing to spend, they remain focused on finding the best deals to maximize their budgets, even if it means choosing value over loyalty. Spending on experiences, including travel, hosting gatherings, or attending holiday concerts and activities, is on the rise, underscoring shifting priorities and new opportunities for retailers. 

 Experiencing the holidays in new ways

This year, gifts are not the only items on consumers’ holiday shopping lists. Respondents indicate increased confidence in the economy and plan to allocate more of their budgets to experiences and non-gift purchases. Among surveyed consumers, 43% expect the economy to improve this year, up nine percentage points from last year. Overall, consumers plan to spend an average of $1,778, up 8% year-over-year, with the average number of gifts purchased this year at nine versus eight in 2023.

• Retail spending (gifts and non-gifts) will likely remain relatively flat year-over-year ($1,043 compared to $1,020 in 2023). However, it still accounts for most (59%) of the average expected holiday spend. Surveyed consumers expect to spend $536 on gifts (down 3% year-over-year) and $507 on non-gift purchases, up 9% year-over-year. In addition, surveyed consumers plan to spend $735 on experiences, up 16% year-over-year. 
• Participation in experiences is near pre-pandemic levels (83% this year versus 86% in 2019). Overall, the five-year CAGR (2019 - 2024) for experiences is 4.3% compared to 3% for retail categories.
• All those surveyed making less than $200,000 intend to spend more this season, with high-income earners (those making $100,000 to $199,999) seeing the most significant gains; they plan to spend 17% more year-over-year. 
• Among retail executive buyers surveyed, 8 in 10 expect sales growth this holiday season, aided by more in-store and online traffic.
• More shoppers plan to gift food and beverage products this year — up nine percentage points year-over-year. Although holiday shoppers plan to spend 10% less on clothing and accessories this year, the category remains at the top of gift lists. Additionally, 4 in 10 shoppers plan to gift experiences (such as event tickets or vouchers to restaurants or spas).
•  Holiday gatherings are a big part of experiences at home with 1 in 4 consumers surveyed planning to host a holiday gathering, invite an average of 10 guests, and spend an average of $261. At the same time, 70% of hosts are open to spending more on items or services to make hosting more convenient. They’re also resourceful — 47% would ask guests to bring food or beverages to offset costs, and 31% say they will invite fewer guests this year. 

“This holiday season, consumers plan to prioritize celebrating with friends and family through experiences. To do so, they are finding ways to make their dollars go further on the gifts they want to give and the events they want to experience. With consumers leaning more into experiences and continuing to search for value, retailers have the opportunity to attract shoppers and better connect with customers by focusing on loyalty programs and offering unique incentives," said Brian McCarthy, principal, Deloitte Consulting.

 Consumers prioritize value to make the season merry

Among holiday shoppers surveyed, 7 in 10 expect higher prices, which has remained unchanged since 2022. Amid the perception of higher prices, consumers are caught between wanting to stretch their wallets and being festive.

• Consumers seek quality, great deal, and variety when holiday shopping, citing online-only retailers (71%) and mass merchants (55%) as the most preferred retail formats.
• Those looking for deals may challenge loyalty — 62% say they will shift brands if the preferred brand is too expensive, 48% say they will shop at more affordable retailers. Moreover, 80% of retail executives expect private label sales to grow faster than national brand sales this holiday season.
• Nearly one-third (29%) of holiday shoppers plan to purchase gifts from a friend or family member’s wish list hosted on a retailer’s site.
• Last year, 48% of shoppers planned to buy gifts for themselves, but this year, those planning to splurge on themselves will shrink to 32%. Those who plan to self-gift expect to spend an average of $250 on clothing and accessories (63%), electronics and accessories (34%), health and wellness (32%) and experiences (22%). However, self-gifting is higher among younger shoppers: 47% of Gen Z say they will self-gift, and 32% of millennials say they’ll spend on experiences for themselves. 
• Multichannel presence continues to be essential for retailers to meet shoppers where they are, especially as younger buyers gain purchasing power; 48% of those surveyed plan to shop on smartphones, while 13% plan to purchase on social media. However, Gen Z is embracing these channels more, with 58% planning to shop on their smartphone and 20% planning to buy gifts on social media.

For holiday shopping, time is of the essence

Despite heightened interest in October promotional events, November continues to be key in the shopping season, with the bulk of holiday spending expected to occur in late November.

• Over three-quarters (78%) of holiday shoppers plan to shop at least one promotional event, up from 61% in 2023.
• Although retailers are tempting 38% of consumers to shop during October promotional events, up from 24% in 2023, most spending is expected to continue to occur in late November and early December.  
• Overall, more than two-thirds (68%) of holiday shoppers plan to shop during Thanksgiving week to take advantage of deep discounts. 
• The younger and higher income groups are expected to participate the most in Thanksgiving week promotions. Though those earning $200,000 a year or more plan to keep their spending flat this year, they are the group that plans to shop on Black Friday (53%) and Cyber Monday (60%).
• While the overall shopping window has been steady at 5.7 weeks, Gen Z shoppers intend to wrap up their shopping in only 4.6 weeks, down from 5.1 weeks in 2023. Gen X and Baby Boomers plan to take their time; they have the longest shopping windows at 6.4 weeks and 6.3 weeks, respectively. 

“Despite expectations of higher prices, all income groups are optimistic that the economy will improve next year and are willing to spend on delivering holiday cheer. Experiences are expected to fuel holiday spending. To fund holiday experiences, value-seeking consumers plan to hunt for deals from stores and brands and trade down to stretch their wallets, keeping spending on overall retail categories flat year-over-year.” said Stephen Rogers, managing director, Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center, Deloitte Services.

 Deloitte’s “2024 Holiday Retail Survey” is based on a survey of 4,114 consumers fielded between Aug. 30 and Sept. 6. Deloitte also surveyed 45 retail industry executives, of which 93% were from retailers with annual revenues of $1 billion or more, conducted between June 12 and July 3.