ARLINGTON, Va. — U.S. grocery prices saw a modest rise in May, according to new Consumer Price Index data released today, with food-at-home inflation climbing 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% compared to a year ago. The increase, driven largely by a 1.1% jump in cereal and bakery product prices, signals what the Food Industry Association (FMI) described as “continued — albeit mild — volatility” in food costs.
“After cooling in April, the CPI numbers released today demonstrate that food inflation remains somewhat unsettled,” said Andy Harig, FMI’s Vice President of Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development. Harig pointed to declines in key staples as a partial offset to the overall increase. Egg prices dropped 2.7% and milk prices declined 1.1%, helping to moderate the overall impact on consumers.
Harig also cautioned that newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum could ripple through the food supply chain. “The impact of tariffs on food prices remains muted but continues to be a factor worth watching,” he said. “Higher packaging costs for canned foods and beverages, along with increased capital expenditures for store construction and equipment, could emerge in the coming months if trade tensions persist.”
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment showed signs of cautious optimism. According to FMI’s June Grocery Shopper Snapshot, 42% of shoppers expressed a positive outlook for the year ahead — up four percentage points from May. Still, economic uncertainty continues to weigh on household budgets, with 45% of shoppers reporting reduced overall spending.
“Tariffs remain a top concern among grocery shoppers,” said Steve Markenson, FMI’s Vice President of Research and Insights. “Fifty-four percent of consumers rank tariffs as their most pressing worry, even as their broader outlook improves.”
FMI leaders urged policymakers to pursue trade solutions that support supply chain stability and protect food affordability. While short-term inflationary pressures appear modest, the longer-term impact of global trade dynamics remains a critical watchpoint for food retailers and consumers alike.
