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SAN JOSE, Calif. — Adobe has released its online shopping forecast for the 2024 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2024. The company expects U.S. online sales to hit $240.8 billion this holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), representing 8.4% growth year-over-year (YoY). In the 2023 season, shoppers spent $221.8 billion online at 4.9% growth YoY. Shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, contributing a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% YoY. This would represent a 53.2% share of online spend this season (versus desktop shopping).
Record E-commerce Spend in the U.S.
Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend, up 7.0% YoY and representing 16.9% of the overall holiday season. Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $13.2 billion in spend, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9% YoY) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion, up 8.7% YoY) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in growth YoY, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by U.S. retailers. In a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 71% say they plan to shop online on Black Friday, with 70% saying they proactively check for deals during Cyber Week.
“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways,” says Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers.”
Price Sensitive Shoppers Enticed by Strong Discounts
Adobe anticipates major discounts this season–up to 30% off listed prices–as retailers compete for consumer dollars. These levels are on par with the 2023 season. Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 30% off listed price (vs. 31% in 2023) while discounts for toys are set to hit 27% (vs. 28%). Record high discounts are expected for TVs at 24% (vs. 23%) and sporting goods at 20% (vs. 18%). Other categories with notable discounts include apparel at 23% (vs. 24%), computers at 23% (vs. 24%), furniture at 19% (vs. 21%) and appliances at 18% (vs. 18%).
Each season, discounting has been a reliable driver of consumer demand and e-commerce growth for retailers. The effect has been more pronounced in 2024 as consumers remain price sensitive, taking advantage of big promotional events after a period of persistent inflation. This year, Adobe’s data showed that for every 1% decrease in price during promotional events (Prime Day, President’s Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day), demand increased by 1.025% compared to the year prior. This drove an incremental $305 million in online spend. For the upcoming holiday season, Adobe expects the strong consumer response to discounts will contribute an incremental $2 billion to $3 billion in online spend—a figure factored into the record $240.8 billion spend forecasted for e-commerce.
Over half of online spend this holiday season is expected to be driven by electronics ($55.1 billion, up 8.5% YoY), apparel ($43.9 billion, up 5.8% YoY) and furniture/bedding ($28.4 billion, up 4.2% YoY). Groceries remains a high-growth category, expected to drive $20.8 billion and up a notable 8.8% YoY, as well as cosmetics ($10.3 billion, up 7.3% YoY). Other notable growth categories this season include toys ($8.1 billion, up 5.8% YoY) and sporting goods ($7.2 billion, up 5.5% YoY).
