CHICAGO — Circana has issued an updated 2026 forecast for the U.S. food and beverage retail industry, indicating modest growth driven by tighter consumer spending, shifting price trends, and ongoing economic uncertainty.
The firm now expects total retail food and beverage sales to increase between 2% and 4% next year, mainly driven by price and product mix, while volume is expected to remain flat or slightly decline. Price growth is forecasted to be in the 2% to 4% range as retailers sharpen their competitive strategies and adopt more AI-supported pricing tools.
Although recent policy adjustments have eased some tariffs, packaged goods manufacturers still face rising supply costs, and strong promotional efforts are keeping price increases in check. Consumer confidence remains weak, especially among low- and middle-income households, who are pulling back sharply on discretionary spending. Premiumization is expected to slow down, while behaviors focused on value and price optimization continue to grow across channels. Circana notes that fresh categories are positioned for relative strength, driven by wellness trends, ingredient transparency, and increased interest related to the adoption of weight-loss drugs.
“Our revised 2026 outlook reflects a market that is tightening and more challenging, but not without growth vectors,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana. “While pricing pressures and cautious consumer sentiment are shaping a more measured growth trajectory, the food and beverage sector continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability.”
Global Trends
Circana forecasts that Europe’s food and beverage value sales will grow about 4% in 2026, driven by increased promotions and ongoing private-label expansion. Private label now accounts for 44% of F&B value sales across the region, up from 41% three years earlier.
In Australia and New Zealand, Circana predicts a 2.5% increase in unit sales next year, with value growth around 6% as improving economic conditions boost consumer spending.
Strategies for 2026
Circana says brands and retailers best positioned for success will emphasize:
• Value, including entry-level price points for budget-conscious shoppers and calibrated price-value mixes for higher-income consumers.
• Channel alignment, ensuring promotional and distribution decisions reflect ongoing migration across brick-and-mortar, mass, club and e-commerce.
• Personalization and innovation, particularly through AI-enhanced assortment and messaging tied to wellness, convenience and taste expectations.
