Consumer spending stabilizes in February despite weather disruptions

CHICAGO — U.S. retail spending recovered in February after weather-related volatility earlier in the year, according to new data from Circana, which shows consumers continuing to spend despite economic uncertainty and high prices.

Overall retail sales revenue increased by 1.3% in February compared to the same month last year, even as unit sales declined by 1%, reflecting ongoing pressure from rising prices.

Severe winter storms impacted over 240 million Americans in late January, and a historic blizzard disrupted parts of the Northeast in late February. Circana said these events caused short-term disruptions but did not significantly change the overall trend of retail performance.

“Despite headwinds from winter storms and ongoing global uncertainties, U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate their resilience—particularly within categories driven by desire rather than necessity,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “There is a growing divide between industries where consumers feel value aligns with pricing and those where elevated costs are dampening demand.”

For the four weeks ending February 28, spending trends across key retail sectors showed a return to steadier patterns.

• Retail food and beverage sales increased 1.4%, while units declined 0.6%.
• Non-edible consumer packaged goods (CPG) posted 1.6% dollar growth, though units fell 2.3%.
• Discretionary general merchandise recorded 0.9% sales growth, with unit demand down 3% year over year.

Circana noted that certain discretionary categories continue to perform well despite higher prices. Prestige beauty and toys are seeing strong demand, while home durables and apparel are experiencing slower sales as consumers delay replacements and opt to “make do.”

In the food and CPG sectors, spending is increasingly driven by lifestyle choices and product innovation, along with price hikes in categories like beverages and beauty.

While geopolitical developments and other global events might disrupt consumer behavior in the coming months, Circana stated that shoppers have so far shown little sign of drastically pulling back on spending.

“Consumers have yet to pull back on overall spending in a significant way—even as potential reasons have been aplenty—but current world events could bring some disruption to their willingness to spend,” Cohen said. “The key to capturing the consumer’s attention amid any distraction is ensuring that they feel newness, excitement, or meaningful value when considering a purchase.”