WASHINGTON – U.S. import cargo volume is set for a steep decline beginning next month as sweeping tariffs take effect, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”
Following previously announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, President Donald Trump last week enacted a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, with “reciprocal” tariffs reaching up to 50%. In response, China announced new tariffs on U.S. goods, prompting the administration to raise tariffs again—bringing the base rate on Chinese goods to 104% under national emergency measures, before even considering existing Section 301 tariffs.
According to Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, imports for the second half of 2025 are now projected to drop at least 20% year over year. Factoring in the early-year surge, total 2025 cargo volume could end the year down 15% or more, unless current policies are reversed.
“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”
Monthly forecast and impact
U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.06 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in February, down 7.5% from January but up 5.2% year over year—making it the busiest February in three years, despite seasonal slowdowns due to Lunar New Year factory closures in China.
Projected volumes are as follows:
- March: 2.14 million TEU (+11.1% YoY)
- April: 2.08 million TEU (+3.1% YoY)
- May: 1.66 million TEU (–20.5% YoY)
- June: 1.57 million TEU (–26.6% YoY)
- July: 1.69 million TEU (–27% YoY)
- August: 1.7 million TEU (–26.8% YoY)
Prior to the latest tariffs, May had been forecast at 2.14 million TEU (+2.8% YoY). The revised figures would bring first-half 2025 imports to 11.73 million TEU, a 2.9% decline from the same period in 2024—in stark contrast to the previously projected 5.7% growth.
Imports surged in 2024—rising to 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023—as retailers rushed to stock up ahead of anticipated tariffs and labor disruptions. That marked the highest total since the 2021 pandemic peak of 25.8 million TEU.
About Global Port Tracker
Produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forward-looking analysis for major U.S. ports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle/Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, and others across the East and Gulf Coasts.
NRF retail members can access the report for free at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Non-members can subscribe at www.globalporttracker.com.
