WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation predicts U.S. retail sales will increase by 4.4% in 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion, driven by steady consumer spending and resilient economic fundamentals.
The forecast, developed with Oxford Economics, was presented at NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer event and exceeds the 10-year pre-pandemic average growth rate of 3.6%.
“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said, adding that household spending is expected to remain a key economic driver this year.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews mentioned that growth will continue to be driven by higher-income consumers, while lower-income households stay more cautious. He also highlighted geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty as possible risks, though the underlying conditions remain steady.
Inflation is expected to slow in the second half of the year, while unemployment is projected to stay below 4.5%. NRF added that consumer sentiment remains weak but continues to diverge from actual spending behavior.
The forecast is based on NRF’s core retail definition, excluding autos, gas, and restaurants, and shows that some of the projected gains will represent real growth rather than just inflation.
For frequently asked questions regarding NRF’s annual forecast, visit here.
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