ARLINGTON, Va. — FMI–The Food Industry Association and NielsenIQ find that grocery shopping is no longer a choice between store and screen, but instead a seamless blend of both in the latest Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026 report. With omnichannel behaviors as the new normal, total U.S. online grocery sales will reach $452 billion by 2028, making ecommerce a primary engine of grocery progress.
The report finds that ecommerce now drives nearly three-quarters of total grocery dollar growth. In 2025 alone, online sales contributed close to 75% of total grocery dollar growth, while in-store sales remained relatively stable.
"Ecommerce is poised for extensive growth,” said Jack O’Leary, director of ecommerce strategic insights for NIQ. “With online grocery sales increasing at a projected 11.6% annual rate through 2028 and already accounting for about one-fifth of total grocery spending, success now hinges on how well retailers connect digital and physical experiences into one cohesive journey.”
Food represents one of the largest opportunities for category expansion within ecommerce. While food purchases remain primarily store-led, online food sales jumped nearly 19% in 2025. The report finds that without ecommerce, many grocery categories would post flat or declining sales, reinforcing the role of digital as a competitive lever rather than a complementary add-on.
“Omnichannel shopping is now the norm for most households,” said Steve Markenson, vice president, research & insights for FMI. “Nearly 94% of grocery shoppers in 2025 purchased both online and in-store, blending digital discovery, fulfillment and store visits based on needs, timing and convenience.”
“As online grocery continues to scale, fulfillment and speed have become critical points of competitive differentiation. Average delivery times have fallen sharply since 2018 and shoppers increasingly expect same-day or next-day delivery, especially for food,” said Doug Baker, vice president of industry relations for FMI. “Shoppers place a premium on frictionless execution across the entire shopper journey. From the digital shelf and shoppable content to fulfillment speed and the in-store experience, food retailers that offer seamless, enjoyable experiences will provide shoppers value and build loyalty.”
Looking ahead, the research points to the next phase of digital evolution. While still early, advances in artificial intelligence (AI), including agentic tools that support planning, discovery and low-consideration purchasing, have the potential to further reshape how shoppers engage with grocery. The report advises food retailers and suppliers to prepare now as these technologies mature.
Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026 is part of an ongoing FMI and NIQ research series examining omnichannel growth, ecommerce performance and emerging technology across the grocery industry.
