Pandemic disruptions worsened short-term cancer survival, study finds

NEW YORK — Pandemic-related disruptions to the U.S. healthcare system were linked to poorer short-term survival outcomes for cancer patients diagnosed during the early years of COVID-19, according to a new federally funded study published in JAMA Oncology.

Researchers discovered that patients diagnosed with cancer in 2020 and 2021 had lower one-year survival rates compared to those diagnosed between 2015 and 2019. This pattern was consistent across different cancer types and stages, including both early and late diagnoses.

For pharmacy operators and healthcare stakeholders, the findings underscore the importance of maintaining access to screening, timely referrals, and ongoing care during public health emergencies, particularly for high-risk and newly diagnosed patients.

The study is the first to directly examine how disruptions during the pandemic affected short-term, cause-specific cancer survival, according to the authors. While COVID-19 itself posed increased risks for immunocompromised patients, the analysis excluded virus-attributable deaths to better focus on system-level effects.

“Disruptions to the health care system were probably a key contributor,” said Todd Burus, the study’s lead author and a researcher at the University of Kentucky. He cited postponed screenings, delayed diagnoses, and slower access to treatment as likely factors, particularly in 2020, when hospitals and clinics were overwhelmed.

Cancer screenings like colonoscopies, mammograms, and lung scans were widely postponed early in the pandemic. Earlier research showed that overall U.S. cancer death rates kept decreasing through 2020 and 2021, but the new findings indicate that newly diagnosed patients experienced short-term survival setbacks despite long-term improvements in prevention and treatment.

“This study is important because it documents pandemic-related, cause-specific survival,” said Recinda Sherman of the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries, who was not involved in the research. “The more we understand about COVID-19’s impact, the better we can prepare for future disruptions.”

Using national cancer registry data, the researchers examined more than 1 million patients diagnosed with a first malignant cancer in 2020 and 2021. About 144,000 of those patients died within one year. One-year survival rates were over 96% for early-stage diagnoses and 74% for late-stage diagnoses, but both figures were slightly lower than expected based on pre-pandemic trends.

The largest declines in survival were seen in colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancers. Overall, the researchers estimate that the shortfall resulted in approximately 17,400 excess deaths beyond what would have been expected in the absence of pandemic disruptions.

Whether the impact on long-term cancer mortality is clear remains unclear. “Transient declines in survival that quickly recover may have little impact on long-term mortality trends,” said Hyuna Sung of the American Cancer Society.