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Retailers, suppliers brace for a more severe flu outbreak

Activity is ramping up across most U.S. regions, with spikes in the Northeast and Mountain West, with the new subclade K variant emerging and potentially impacting population immunity.

NEW YORK – As colder weather moves across the U.S., flu season is accelerating, fueled by more indoor holiday parties and gatherings that increase the risk of transmission. New York is seeing a rise in flu cases, and other regions are beginning to follow suit. Health experts warn this could be another severe season. While COVID-19 and RSV remain less widespread, both are trending upward as well.

From all reports, the 2025-2026 cold and flu season is beginning to ramp up, increasing influenza activity, particularly with rising cases in children and young adults, and high prevalence of the Influenza A(H3N2) strain, which could lead to a more severe season. 

The mutated H3N2 strain, called subclade K, has spread rapidly worldwide and already gained dominance in several countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

Activity is ramping up across most U.S. regions, with spikes in the Northeast and Mountain West, with the new subclade K variant emerging and potentially impacting population immunity. For the week ended December 6 — the first full week after the Thanksgiving holiday — the proportion of doctor’s visits for symptoms including fever plus a cough or sore throat rose to 3.2%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Retailers and suppliers are gearing up for the January–February flu season by increasing inventories of essential products, including over-the-counter medications, personal protective equipment (PPE), and household staples.

Flu cases are up

“While cold and flu season has been fairly light so far this fall, our MinuteClinic and Oak Street Health teams are starting to see more patients coming in with symptoms commonly associated with flu-like illnesses, and our pharmacy teams are getting a number of questions about the best over-the-counter medication to help ease cough and cold symptoms,” reports Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips, CVS Health’s chief medical officer. “On the vaccine front, we’ve been seeing increasing demand for flu and COVID-19 vaccines nationwide as we inch toward peak sick season and have ample supply for our patients’ needs,” she notes.

Anita Patel, vice president of pharmacy services development at Walgreens, notes that the latest Walgreens Respiratory Index data reveals significant increases in flu activity across several regions, with the East Coast experiencing the greatest uptick, driven by a surge of cases in New York. “Other areas where we are seeing high flu activity include New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Minnesota. The data points to sharp regional spikes and an overall upward trend in flu activity as we head into the holiday season. Now is the time to get a flu shot and to encourage your loved ones to do the same. Vaccination remains the most effective way to help prevent serious illness. Individuals and families can walk into their nearest Walgreens pharmacy or schedule an appointment by visiting Walgreens.com/ScheduleVaccine, through the Walgreens app, texting “Flu” to 66879 or by calling (800) WALGREENS.”

She adds that virus season can be unpredictable, so it is also important to be prepared in case symptoms develop. “If you are experiencing a runny nose, cough or other respiratory symptoms, consider getting tested at your local Walgreens — it is an easy way to get some peace of mind and ensure you get the right treatment as quickly as possible. Walgreens offers a range of convenient, low-cost options, including in-store and at-home tests for flu and COVID-19. With a positive in-store test, a Walgreens pharmacist may also be able to prescribe oral antiviral treatment for flu or COVID-19, where appropriate. We also make it easy to stock up on cold and flu season essentials with one-hour delivery for common O-T-C items. Our pharmacists are always available to help patients navigate vaccination recommendations, testing options and treatment needs throughout the winter season.”

Nasal sprays offer solutions

As far as O-T-C solutions, nasal sprays offer relief for cold and flu by moisturizing nasal passages, shrinking swollen tissues to clear congestion, reducing inflammation, or blocking mucus. “This cough and cold season, Bayer has expanded distribution of its Afrin Saline Burst line, introducing a more elevated approach to everyday congestion relief,” says Jessica Greenwood, marketing director of cough-cold at Bayer U.S. Made with natural purified seawater, the saline offering delivers a premium consumer experience, inclusive of an innovative 2-in-1 pump that lets users choose their preferred mode of relief — Gentle Mist or Power Jet — within a single SKU. The expansion underscores Bayer’s continued investment in differentiated nasal care solutions designed to meet evolving shopper needs at retail.”

“This cold and flu season, we’re seeing increased demand for immune support products that block bacteria and viruses in the nose and mouth along with symptom-relief products that align with broader wellness trends like cleaner labels and reduced sugar,” explains Nate Jones, founder and chief executive officer of Xlear. It’s driving solid performance in traditional cough and cold categories, along with growing interest in products positioned for everyday preventative support.” 

The company recently updated both the product and the packaging of its Xlear Cough Drops to deliver an even better experience, with refined and improved ingredients that enhance taste and texture while boosting oral health benefits.

Natural product remedies for colds continue to gain popularity, focusing on immune support and symptom relief. 

“The natural and organic segment of the cough-cold category continues to grow,” reports Louis Machin, managing director at Lifelab Health. “Statistics show young moms prefer organic over allopathic alternatives to products with dyes and active ingredients for the safe care of their children’s colds. HoneyWorks USDA-certified organic children’s cough syrups as well as USDA organic soothing throat sprays offer natural alternatives to treating cold symptoms at affordable prices and excellent margins for retailers,” he adds.

Homeopathic products on the rise

Homeopathic remedies are very hot right now. “In chain drug stores, the cold and flu aisle continues to evolve as shoppers seek more choice, clearer information, and solutions aligned with specific symptom occasions throughout the year. Consumers are spending more time comparing products and looking for options that match individual needs, increasing the importance of clearly organized product sets within the aisle, including homeopathic cold and flu medicines such as Boiron’s ColdCalm and Oscillococcinum. As assortment complexity grows, clear shelf organization and pharmacist-led education are playing a larger role in helping shoppers make confident, informed decisions,” says MaryEllen Tefft, vice president of sales for FDM at Boiron USA.

Tefft explains at that consumer purchasing behavior is becoming more intentional and needs-based. Rather than relying on a single product for every situation, many shoppers are selecting products based on how they already manage health at home by addressing symptoms as they arise, keeping certain products on hand, and choosing solutions they feel comfortable using across different occasions. This mindset continues to support interest in homeopathic cold and flu medicines as part of the category mix.

On-the-go options

“Another key trend shaping the cough, cold and allergy category is growing demand for convenience and ease of use. Shoppers are increasingly looking beyond traditional pills and syrups and gravitating toward formats that feel simpler and more approachable, such as meltaway pellets and tablets that dissolve in the mouth without water. This shift in format preference reflects how consumers are rethinking when and how products fit into daily routines,” Tefft adds.

She says parents, in particular, are prioritizing simplicity and practicality when selecting products for children. Formats designed around single-dose use and straightforward administration, such as ColdCalm Baby Liquid Doses, align with broader purchasing behaviors focused on minimizing complexity and making at-home care easier to manage.

“Across the category, consumers are also paying closer attention to ingredient transparency and labeling clarity, seeking products that align with their personal approach to health and wellness. This focus has contributed to continued interest in homeopathic medicines within the broader cough, cold and allergy assortment, particularly among shoppers who value clearly defined usage frameworks. This goes hand in hand with the emerging trend of consumers, particularly moms, who are embracing homeopathic medicines due to their positive experience with these products. As individuals take charge of their health, they are opting for “better for you” options that provide reliable relief without known drug interactions,” she adds.

Tefft explains that as these consumer trends continue to shape purchasing decisions, retailers are responding by diversifying assortments and reinforcing store-level education. Well-trained staff, supported by in-store and digital resources, remain essential in helping shoppers navigate a more complex aisle and supporting a confident, positive shopping experience.

“Viral illnesses are increasingly occurring year-round, prompting consumers to keep homeopathic medicines on hand beyond the traditional cold and flu season. Shoppers are proactively managing their health by stocking products that provide targeted symptom relief, and retailers who anticipate this demand are better positioned to capture sales and build loyalty. Interest in clean-label ingredients and reliable homeopathic options further supports this trend, making preparedness a key driver of category growth throughout the year,” she concludes.

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