CAMPBELL, Calif. — RetailNext released its full 2025 Black Friday Weekend report, showing a measurable pullback in in-store traffic even as shoppers who did visit stores demonstrated a willingness to spend on higher-value items. Total U.S. foot traffic declined 5.8 percent year over year across the Friday–Monday period, marking one of the softest Black Friday weekends in recent years and underscoring how inflation, weather volatility, and elongated discounting are reshaping holiday shopping behavior.
Black Friday Weekend 2025 by the numbers
- 5.8% drop in overall U.S. in-store traffic Friday–Monday
- +2.1% Average Transaction Value (ATV) for the weekend
- +4.4% Average Unit Retail (AUR) as shoppers traded up
- -41.8% Saturday traffic in the Midwest due to severe weather
- -10.3% traffic in Home, the hardest hit category
- +0.3% Shopper Yield, showing more value per visit
Source: RetailNext 2025 Black Friday Weekend traffic and sales report.
Despite the slowdown in store visits, the weekend showed stronger results in key sales metrics. Average Transaction Value increased by 2.1 percent, while Average Unit Retail rose 4.4 percent, indicating a shift toward more intentional, higher-priced purchases. Units per transaction declined by 1.5 percent, reflecting fewer impulse add-ons and a more goal-oriented approach.
“This year’s Black Friday weekend illustrates how thoughtful and discerning the American shopper has become,” said Joe Shasteen, Global Head of Advanced Analytics at RetailNext. “People came in with a plan and prioritized specific products, compared prices more carefully, and committed to higher-quality purchases instead of filling baskets for the sake of volume. That shift tells us that physical retail isn’t losing relevance, it’s becoming a destination for decisions that matter.”
Midwest Weather Drives Steep Saturday Decline
Among regional performances, the Midwest experienced the most significant disruption. A severe winter storm caused Saturday traffic to drop by 41.8 percent, pulling down national averages and highlighting how extreme weather increasingly acts as a structural factor in holiday performance. The Northeast was relatively stable with a decline of 5.3 percent for the weekend, while the South and West experienced more moderate decreases of 5.2 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.
Even on Cyber Monday, a day usually dominated by online shopping, in-store traffic fell 6.5 percent. The biggest drops were in the South and West, highlighting consumers' preference for digital channels during online-focused sales.
Categories Reflect Cautious, Value-Driven Behavior
All major retail categories experienced a decline in weekend traffic. Home goods saw the largest drop at 10.3 percent, continuing a months-long trend of weakness in large discretionary purchases. Footwear decreased by 6.8 percent, and health and beauty declined 5.4 percent. However, apparel had a smaller drop of 3.1 percent, showing that consumers stayed willing to refresh essential wardrobe items even as they put off other purchases.
Shopper Yield, a key productivity metric that combines conversion and spending, increased by 0.3 percent over the weekend. Conversion dropped slightly by 1.2 percent, but higher spending per visit helped offset the weaker traffic environment.
“Consumers aren’t abandoning stores; they’re weighing trade-offs more seriously,” Shasteen said. “Weather disruptions in large regions certainly played a role, but even in the strongest markets, shoppers were more precise about when they went out and what they were willing to buy. The performance of AUR and ATV shows that stores continue to be the place where people validate value, whether through trying, comparing, or confirming the deal is real.”
A Longer Promotional Season Reduces Urgency
RetailNext observed that the extended promotional calendar—with major retailers offering holiday deals as early as late October—probably lessened the urgency usually linked to the Thanksgiving weekend. Shoppers, increasingly used to month-long discounts, spread their purchases more evenly throughout the season instead of focusing spending around Black Friday.
Discount fatigue also appears to influence consumer behavior. With deal saturation high and price sensitivity rising, shoppers are becoming more selective in choosing promotions that meet their value standards.
“If anything, this weekend reinforces that retailers can no longer rely on crowds,” Shasteen added. “Shoppers responded best where promotions were transparent, inventory was well-curated, and the in-store experience felt worth the effort.”
Data Methodology
The findings are based on data from tens of thousands of U.S. stores across hundreds of brands using the RetailNext smart store platform. Metrics exclude automobiles, petroleum, and warehouse clubs, and include only stores that were open both this year and last year.
RetailNext provides retailers with real-time analytics on shopper behavior, enabling data-driven decisions that enhance the customer experience and improve store performance. Its platform is used by over 560 retailers across more than 100 countries.
Learn more at retailnext.net.
