WASHINGTON — Import cargo volumes at the nation’s largest container ports are on track to end 2025 5.6% lower than last year as new tariffs take hold, according to the Global Port Tracker report released Thursday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The drop, from 25.5 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in 2024 to a projected 24.1 million TEU this year, reflects mounting trade pressures and shifting supply chain strategies by U.S. retailers.
The report points to an uneven year for imports. The first half of 2025 saw a modest 3.6% increase from the prior year, reaching 12.53 million TEU. But importers accelerated shipments in early summer to avoid higher tariffs, pulling forward holiday season inventory and setting the stage for steep declines later in the year.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”
The tariffs, which apply to dozens of countries, including U.S. allies, were enacted this week after months of announcements, postponements, and negotiations. Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett described the process as a “hither-and-thither” approach that is creating uncertainty for importers, exporters, and consumers alike. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,” Hackett said. “Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”
June, the latest month with final data, saw 1.96 million TEUs handled, up slightly from May but down 8.4% year-over-year. July is projected to hit 2.3 million TEU, the highest monthly total in a year, as retailers rushed to stock up before tariffs were implemented. The surge will be followed by sharp year-over-year declines: August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU (-5%), September at 1.83 million (-19.5%), October at 1.82 million (-18.9%), November at 1.71 million (-21.1%), and December at 1.72 million (-19.3%).
The late-year slowdown is partly due to the front-loading of cargo in earlier months but also reflects the elevated import levels seen in late 2024, when companies moved goods early to avoid potential port strikes on the East and Gulf Coasts.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is available free of charge to NRF retail members, and subscription information can be found at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
