U.S. port imports expected to turn positive by late spring

WASHINGTON — Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see a small rebound in January but stay below last year’s levels until at least late spring, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

January is expected to show the first month-over-month rise in imports in six months as retailers stock up on merchandise before Lunar New Year factory shutdowns across Asia. Despite that increase, total volume is forecast to remain lower compared to last year, due to a seasonal post-holiday slowdown and ongoing effects from trade policy uncertainties.

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. He added that retailers are coming off a busy holiday season and are now assessing demand and inventory strategies for 2026 while working to keep supply chains running smoothly. Retailers, Gold noted, are also hoping for greater stability and predictability around tariffs and trade policy in the year ahead.

Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in November, the most recent month with final data available. That total was down 2.3% from October and 6.5% from November 2024. December volumes have not yet been reported, but are projected at 1.99 million TEU, representing a 6.6% year-over-year decline.

While November and December are usually slower months for imports, the year-over-year declines are heightened by increased volumes late in 2024, when many retailers sped up shipments due to concerns about potential port labor disruptions. Additionally, several retailers moved imports earlier in 2025 to avoid tariff increases, which contributed to softer comparisons at the year’s end.

Trade policy remains a key factor in the outlook for 2026. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the effect of increased U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025 is likely to continue shaping cargo flows in the coming months.

“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said, adding that the shift has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.

Looking ahead, January imports are expected to reach 2.11 million TEU, an increase from December but still 5.3% lower than last year. February is projected at 1.94 million TEU, a 4.6% decrease, followed by March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4%. April is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, an 8.1% decline, before volumes are expected to turn positive in May, with imports rising 6.2% year over year to 2.07 million TEU.

Global Port Tracker offers historical data and forecasts for major U.S. container ports on the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast, providing retailers with insights into shipping trends and broader economic conditions shaping supply chains.