WASHINGTON — Consumers are beginning their back-to-school shopping well before the first day of class, but many are stretching purchases over a longer period as they hunt for bargains, according to new research from the National Retail Federation.
The annual survey, conducted by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, found that 62% of consumers had already started shopping for the school year by early July. While that is down from 67% at the same point last year, it remains well above the 55% reported in 2024, suggesting that early shopping has become the norm.
At the same time, shoppers are balancing early purchases with tighter budget management as inflation and affordability concerns continue to influence household spending.
"Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season," said Mark Mathews, NRF's chief economist and executive director of research. "Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further. Retailers are responding with a strong assortment of products, promotional events and more convenient shopping options, helping families find what they need while saving time and money."
Among shoppers who have not yet purchased at least half of their back-to-school items, 46% said they are waiting for the best deals before completing their shopping, while 23% said they are spreading purchases over time to better manage their budgets. Nearly half (47%) said they plan to buy only essential supplies before school begins and replenish items throughout the year.
Consumers are also taking advantage of retailer promotions. More than half (54%) reported shopping major June promotional events, including Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Deal Days, specifically for back-to-school purchases.
Despite the emphasis on value, overall spending is expected to reach new highs.
Families with children in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $863.86 this year, up slightly from $858.07 in 2025. Total K-12 spending is projected to reach a record $43.3 billion, surpassing last year's $39.4 billion and the previous record of $41.5 billion set in 2023.
Electronics remain the largest spending category, with shoppers planning to spend an average of $293.11, representing $14.7 billion in total sales. Consumers also expect to spend an average of $250.29 on clothing and accessories, $174.01 on shoes and $146.45 on school supplies.
Shopping patterns also continue to evolve. Half of K-12 shoppers said they expect to make purchases online, down from 55% last year. Department stores ranked next at 47%, followed by discount stores at 44% and clothing stores at 39%.
College spending is expected to climb even more sharply.
Students and their families are projected to spend a record $103.5 billion this year, marking the first time college back-to-school spending has topped $100 billion. Average spending is expected to reach $1,437.79 per student, up from $1,325.85 last year and above the previous record of $1,366.95 set in 2023.
Electronics account for the largest share of college budgets, with planned spending averaging $341.95, or $24.63 billion in total. Other major categories include dorm or apartment furnishings ($194 per shopper), clothing and accessories ($182.39), food ($153.91) and personal care products ($133.34).
"The rise in college spending is being driven by increased purchasing plans across multiple categories," said Phil Rist, Prosper executive vice president of strategy. "The percentage of consumers planning to purchase electronics has increased significantly this year, while several other categories are also attracting more shoppers than previous years."
Even as online shopping remains the leading destination for college purchases, its share continues to decline. About 41% of respondents said they plan to shop online, the lowest level since 2016. Department stores and discount stores each attracted 33% of planned shoppers, while 25% expect to purchase items at college bookstores.
The survey was conducted July 1-8 among 7,677 consumers and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
