Circana: AI reshapes holiday product discovery

CHICAGO – AI-assisted product discovery, social commerce, and earlier shopping are expected to play an increasingly significant role in the 2026 holiday season, according to new insights from Circana.

Circana said advertisers should prepare for a holiday shopping journey that increasingly begins well before Thanksgiving and stretches across social platforms, e-commerce, retail media and physical stores.

The company’s Annual Holiday Survey found that 48% of consumers browsed for holiday purchases before Thanksgiving in 2025, while 44% planned to begin shopping earlier overall. The share of consumers shifting their activity into early November increased three percentage points from the previous year.

Online shopping also remained widespread, with 81% of consumers shopping online during the 2025 holiday period and 47% using a smartphone to browse and buy. Circana said consumers increasingly move across digital and physical channels as they research products, seek inspiration, and make purchases.

AI is also becoming an increasingly important part of product discovery. A Circana Shopper Survey conducted in March found that 25% of consumers had used an AI recommendation to purchase a consumer packaged goods product.

During the holiday shopping journey, consumers are using AI assistants to compare products, generate gift ideas, summarize reviews, and narrow their options. Circana said AI is not replacing shopping but is changing how consumers discover and evaluate products before making a purchase.

The shift also underscores the importance of accurate and consistent product information. As AI assistants increasingly filter and recommend products, Circana said brands should structure their product data and optimize their catalogs so AI tools can accurately understand and surface their products.

Social platforms and creators are another growing influence on product discovery. Circana estimates that TikTok Shop has influenced about 1% of total U.S. retail sales and 3% of e-commerce sales. The company also estimates that 50.1% of social media users will be social buyers, enabling consumers to increasingly discover and purchase products within the same environment.

Creators are also becoming an important part of that process. Circana said the influencer economy has grown into a $31 billion market and reported that 92% of Gen Z shoppers are more likely to make a purchase because of influencer impact.

Younger consumers are also spreading their holiday shopping across more days and channels. Circana ShopperSights data shows that 28.5% of Gen Z consumers and 26.6% of millennials plan to shop on Black Friday. Meanwhile, 12.7% of Gen Z and 12.9% of millennials are likely to browse for more than one day, compared with 8.1% of other generations.

Circana said advertisers should use engagement patterns, creator activity, social commerce, AI-assisted queries, and retail media performance as early indicators of consumer demand rather than relying solely on post-purchase sales data.

For the 2026 holiday season, the company recommends that advertisers begin media efforts earlier, make social commerce and creators core to their discovery strategies, and prepare product information for AI-assisted shopping.

Circana also urged brands and retailers to look beyond individual channel metrics when assessing performance. The company recommends connecting results across retail media, AI, e-commerce, stores, and creator campaigns to better understand their combined impact on business outcomes.

“In competitive categories, decide your peak season and how early to lead in with media, usually two to four weeks of buildup,” said Jonathan Dizney, VP, Global Measurement Media Consulting at Circana.