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Circana sees retail volumes dip, tariff impact still minimal

Price growth in F&B remained stable, with minimal impact from tariffs to date.

Photo by Krisztina Papp / Unsplash

NEW YORK — Retail food and beverage (F&B) volumes continued to decline in late June as cautious consumer sentiment and weather disruptions dampened summer sales, according to Circana’s latest weekly update monitoring the U.S. consumer packaged goods sector.

For the four weeks ending June 29, retail food and beverage (F&B) volume decreased by 0.6% year-over-year. Outdoor entertaining staples experienced the sharpest declines in regions affected by unseasonably cool weather, such as the Northeast and Midwest. While the final week of June brought heat waves across the U.S., the results were mixed: spending rose in northern states but softened in the hottest parts of the South.

Price growth in F&B remained stable, with minimal impact from tariffs to date. Instead, current inflationary pressures reflect specific commodity volatility, particularly in eggs, cocoa, and coffee, as well as continued premiumization trends in categories such as frozen desserts.

Non-food CPG also faced a worsening slowdown in 2025, driven by macroeconomic trends including weather swings, economic uncertainty, and a shift in consumer preferences toward cleaner, more sustainable living. Price growth in non-food CPG reflects ongoing channel and product mix shifts, while shelf prices have yet to show significant tariff-related impacts.

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