Global Port Tracker forecasts import slowdown tied to tariffs

WASHINGTON — U.S. import volume at major container ports is forecast to decrease year-over-year during the first half of 2026 as tariff effects continue to ripple through supply chains, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”

The report comes as a Supreme Court decision is awaited on the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Even if those tariffs are struck down, NRF expressed concern that other trade authorities could be invoked, prolonging uncertainty for retailers.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is complicating forecasting. “The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented makes trade forecasting very difficult,” he said. “Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer.”

U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker handled 1.99 million twenty-foot equivalent units in December, a 6.6% decrease compared to the previous year. For the first half of 2026, imports are expected to total 12.27 million TEU, a 2% decline from the same period last year, with slight increases anticipated in May and June due to easier comparisons after tariff-related disruptions in 2025.