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Holiday budgets hold steady despite inflation

Shoppers are resilient, planning to spend only 1.3% less than last year’s record. Retailers expect early deal-hunting and a long shopping season into December.

Photo by freestocks / Unsplash

WASHINGTON — Consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person this holiday season on gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. The amount is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history, just 1.3% below last year’s record of $901.99.

“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”

Nearly all U.S. adults (91%) plan to celebrate winter holidays such as Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa this year, consistent with past results. Of the total spending, about $628 will go toward gifts for family and friends, while another $263 will be used for food, candy, decorations and greeting cards.

Early shopping remains popular, with 42% of consumers saying they will start browsing and buying before November. More than half (54%) do so to spread out their spending, and 41% aim to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping. Still, most (60%) expect to finish their shopping in December.

Tariffs remain a concern for many shoppers, with 85% anticipating higher prices as a result. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds (63%) say they will wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, up from 59% last year.

“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” said Phil Rist, Prosper’s executive vice president of strategy. “Families with children are especially likely to increase their gift budgets — by more than $30 on average — compared with last year.”

Shoppers plan to use multiple channels to find the best deals. Online remains the top destination (55%), followed by grocery stores (46%), department stores (44%) and discount stores (42%).

When asked what gifts they most hope to receive, consumers cited gift cards (50%), clothing or accessories (46%), books and media (27%), beauty and personal care items (23%), and electronics (22%).

The NRF survey polled 8,247 adults from October 1–7 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.

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