SAN MATEO, Calif. — U.S. holiday shoppers are divided on spending plans this year, with 28% expecting to spend less and 26% planning to spend more, according to new Harris Poll research for Rakuten Rewards. Families with children are nearly twice as likely to increase spending as those without (38% vs. 19%), even as inflation and rising household costs weigh heavily on budgets.
Nearly half of consumers (46%) say their monthly expenses will impact their holiday plans, and one in four expect to incur more credit card debt to buy gifts. The trend appears across all income levels but is strongest among larger households.
“Consumers are navigating a volatile economy and increased financial stress this holiday season,” said Wendy Bergh, chief marketing officer at Rakuten Rewards. “While there is still a strong desire to celebrate and give gifts to loved ones, shoppers are incredibly cautious with where and how they spend. Retailers need to deliver incentives that go beyond a ‘great deal’ — they need to offer something shoppers simply can’t pass up.”
To attract cautious shoppers, retailers are highlighting “stackable” deals, as 75% of consumers say that combining coupons, free shipping, and cash back influences their purchase decisions. Half of retailers plan to offer free shipping and returns, while 49% will focus on loyalty programs, and 44% will increase cash back and rewards.
Despite consumer caution, 83% of retailers expect to reach their fourth-quarter sales targets, driven by strong results in 2024. “The brands that succeed this season will personalize incentives and deliver meaningful value that builds loyalty,” said Wendy Bergh, chief marketing officer at Rakuten Rewards.
