CHICAGO — Holiday shoppers are moving quickly and spending more. A new Basis survey found that 35% of consumers plan to increase their holiday spending in 2026, largely because inflation is pushing gift prices higher. At the same time, 83% of respondents said they decide on a holiday gift within days of first encountering it, highlighting a narrow window for brands to capture attention.
The data is compiled in the Basis 2026 Winter Holiday Shopping Trends study, based on a national survey of 2,006 U.S. consumers age 16+ fielded in May 2026. The report, produced in partnership with audience research firm GWI, provides an annual pulse on how U.S. consumers plan to shop, celebrate, and make purchasing decisions during the winter holiday season. It spans data on gifting intent, spending outlook, digital discovery behavior, channel preferences by generation, and the evolving role of AI in the purchase journey. The report is available at https://basis.com/reports/2026-holiday-shopping-and-advertising-trends-report.
Below are additional key highlights from the study.
Spending and Sentiment:
- Among consumers planning to spend less, 47% say they are worried about the economy, 44% cite more expenses to prioritize, and 39% say uncertainty about the future is a factor.
- 45% say that political or geopolitical change has altered their holiday outlook — with 57% of those consumers responding by looking for deals and discounts more actively, and 33% setting a stricter budget.
Discovery and Digital:
- Among respondents, 42% plan to shop equally online and in person; 34% plan to shop mostly online with some in-person.
- Social commerce is growing: 19% of consumers say they are likely to purchase directly via social in 2026, up from 11% who did so in 2025 — with Gen Z leading at 33% and Millennials at 27% likely to purchase through this channel this year.
- In 2025, 71% of 2025 holiday gift buyers used a digital tool to find gift ideas — with search leading at 51%, social at 44%, and AI at 23%.
AI:
- In 2025, 38% of Gen Z and 27% of Millennials report using AI for holiday gift discovery, compared to 23% of Gen X and 9% of Boomers.
- Among shoppers, 17% plan to use AI in this year’s holiday shopping -- their top use cases are finding deals (51%), generating gift ideas (44%), and comparing products (44%). However, 60% said they don’t plan to use AI for holiday shopping.
- 42% of likely-to-use- or open-to-AI users say they do not anticipate letting AI buy a gift on their behalf.
Timing:
- Don’t delay: 68% of consumers plan to shop early to avoid delays; 57% shop year-round to take advantage of deals.
- 56% plan to participate in Black Friday and Cyber Monday — but 54% say it is not critical to shop those events because deals are available throughout the season.
“The differentiator for brands during the 2026 holidays will be from understanding how consumers make decisions. Research from Basis confirms that influence is built over a long, distributed season, and not at a single peak moment,” said Maggie Nemoy, VP of research and insights, Basis. “People begin the discovery journey digitally — through search, social, and now AI — before they ever interact directly with a brand. Winning the season requires being present early, capturing emotion and showing up consistently across channels, which can be aided by synchronizing media strategy and activation.”
For the 2026 holiday marketing cycle, Basis offers the following guidance for brands:
- Show up in digital discovery: Brands must be visible and relevant early — preferences form before consumers directly engage a brand.
- Plan for a long, distributed season: The majority of consumers are shopping early or year-round for the holidays. Always-on presence across the full season is required.
- Align with meaning: Emotional storytelling that helps shoppers feel thoughtful — not just thrifty — creates competitive separation.
- Build for cultural relevance: Generic messaging underperforms. Brands need to reflect the diversity of how consumers experience the season.
- Accelerate social commerce investment: Social as a purchase channel has grown. Shoppable, native social formats are no longer emerging — they are active and accelerating.
- Design for the trust gap: The role of AI is to assist and validate. Brands that prioritize trust-building will be better positioned as AI adoption deepens over the next cycle.
