WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation forecasts a record-breaking holiday season. In its annual report, NRF states that retail sales in November and December are expected to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, hitting the first-ever trillion-dollar mark for holiday spending. The outlook indicates a growth of 3.7 to 4.2 percent compared to 2024, when sales topped $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
For drug chains, mass merchants, and pharmacy-led retailers, NRF anticipates ongoing traffic across gift categories, seasonal promotions, and household essentials as shoppers seek value and convenience.
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said retailers are managing ongoing inflation and trade-related pricing pressures. “As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies,” Mathews said.
Seasonal hiring is expected to be between 265,000 and 365,000 positions, down from 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024. Some hiring may have shifted earlier into October to support pre-holiday promotions.
NRF also noted that a federal government shutdown could negatively affect demand by decreasing federal spending and delaying income, which might impact discretionary spending as the peak season approaches.
Consumers report they expect to spend an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, décor, and other seasonal purchases, according to NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That figure is the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
NRF 2025 Holiday Forecast
- Holiday retail sales: $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion expected
- Growth vs. 2024: 3.7 to 4.2 percent
- Average planned consumer spend: $890.49 per person
- Seasonal hiring forecast: 265,000 to 365,000 workers
- NRF definition of holiday season: November 1 through December 31
- NRF forecast excludes auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants
NRF bases its forecast on a model that uses indicators such as consumer spending, disposable income, employment, and inflation.
For more information, visit NRF’s Winter Holiday FAQ and Winter Holiday Headquarters.
