WASHINGTON — U.S. container import volumes have not been significantly affected by the conflict in Iran, but increasing fuel costs related to the situation, along with ongoing tariff pressures, are adding to the challenges faced by retailers and the broader supply chain, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The supply chain is global, and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects, whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets. Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.”
Although relatively little U.S. containerized cargo comes from the Middle East, the report emphasizes how global shipping networks remain highly interconnected. Disruptions at key transit points like the Strait of Hormuz are increasing fuel prices for ocean carriers worldwide, boosting transportation costs that can ultimately affect retailers and consumers. The situation is also leading to higher gasoline prices, which puts more strain on household budgets and may reduce retail demand.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett stated that the recent volume declines are more closely linked to tariffs than the Iran conflict. However, he highlighted that energy market volatility remains a significant secondary factor impacting supply chain economics.
“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at U.S. ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” Hackett said. “Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”
Trade policy continues to put downward pressure on import volumes. President Donald Trump recently implemented a temporary 10% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, following a Supreme Court ruling that limited the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Additionally, adjustments to Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, along with new tariffs targeting pharmaceutical products and ingredients, are adding further complexity for importers.
Against this backdrop, U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker processed 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in February, a 7.5% decline from January and a 4.2% decrease compared to the same month last year. February is usually the slowest month of the year due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but the data also reflects broader macroeconomic and policy pressures.
Looking ahead, import volumes are expected to stay uneven. March is projected at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year over year, while April forecast at 2.08 million TEU represents a 5.6% decline. Modest gains are expected in May and June, with renewed declines in July and August. Overall, first-half 2026 imports are forecast to reach 12.3 million TEU, a 1.8% decrease from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025.
The report highlights the layered pressures faced by retailers and supply chain operators. Even without direct trade disruptions, geopolitical instability, energy market fluctuations, and changing tariff policies are combining to increase costs, squeeze margins, and raise the likelihood of price increases for consumers across retail sectors, including pharmacy and health-related products.
