WASHINGTON — Seasonal hiring is on track to reach its lowest level since the Great Recession as retailers cut back on temporary roles and rely more heavily on lean operations heading into the holidays. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects companies to add between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal jobs this year, a decrease of up to 40% from the 442,000 roles added in 2023. The decline reflects a broader shift in how retailers are managing labor costs amid tariff pressures, inflation, and ongoing investments in automation.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a staffing firm, reflects this outlook by reporting in September that holiday hiring is expected to be the weakest since 2009. The firm pointed to a lack of large-scale staffing announcements and an increasing preference for automation and year-round employee teams, rather than the traditional surge of temporary workers. Retailers “are not betting on a big seasonal surge,” according to the firm’s analysis, as companies aim to “do more with less” in a fluctuating labor market.
The pullback is continuing even as interest in seasonal jobs increases. Indeed reports that job seeker searches for holiday roles were up 27 percent at the end of September compared to the same period last year, and over 50 percent higher than in 2023. Analysts say the mismatch highlights the unusual dynamics of today’s job market, where low unemployment coexists with slower hiring and rising layoffs in several major sectors.
During an NRF call last week, executives noted that retailers have been preparing for a “softening and slowing labor market,” with artificial intelligence playing an increasingly prominent role in store and supply chain operations. Many retailers have fewer layoffs this year, resulting in reduced seasonal hiring as companies focus on increasing productivity among their current staff. The slowdown also follows a recent wave of job cuts at major companies, including Amazon, UPS, and Target, which helped push the total number of layoffs nationwide above 1 million for the year.
Historically, retailers significantly boost their payrolls between October and December, when holiday sales drive a disproportionate share of annual revenue. However, this season, many are bracing for cautious shoppers who are squeezed by persistent grocery inflation, higher prices on tariff-affected goods, and broader economic uncertainty. While NRF still expects record holiday sales topping $1 trillion, analysts say much of that gain is inflation-driven rather than volume-driven.
In this environment, retailers focus on efficiency and flexibility. Target, for instance, said it will hire seasonal workers but did not specify a number, noting it will prioritize hours for current employees and rely on its 43,000-person “On-Demand” workforce to fill gaps. Kohl’s also indicated it will hire some temporary staff, but has not provided details.
Whether a late hiring push occurs will likely depend on the momentum of holiday sales. For now, retailers seem to be hedging their bets, preparing to serve customers with fewer seasonal additions and a greater reliance on technology, cross-trained teams, and flexible labor models.
