NEW YORK — The U.S. e-commerce sector is facing its most significant slowdown in over a decade, as new tariffs and shifting trade policies disrupt consumer behavior and force retailers to overhaul their fulfillment strategies. According to a new survey from AlixPartners, the online shopping ecosystem is grappling with broad-based declines across nearly every major product category, a direct consequence of President Trump’s escalating trade war.
“Elevated consumer awareness of tariffs is clearly flowing through into buying decisions,” said Chris Considine, a Partner in AlixPartners’ Retail practice. “You can see how people are timing their purchases and the conscious effort among a sizeable minority to ‘Buy American’.”
The firm’s latest Home Delivery Survey, conducted between May 31 and June 3, found that online purchases for home delivery declined sharply year over year:
- Office supplies: down 13 percentage points
- Sporting goods: down 12 points
- Cosmetics, furniture, home furnishings, and large electronics: each dropped by 10 points
Grocery stood out as a rare bright spot, with demand holding steady.
Tariffs Disrupt Timing and Sourcing
The slowdown is being driven by more than just softening demand; tariffs are fundamentally changing how consumers shop. According to the survey:
- 34% of consumers delayed purchases due to price uncertainty
- 28% pulled forward purchases to avoid future tariff-related increases
- 66% said they would seek out domestic products if overseas prices rose by 10%
The trade disruption is also prompting some consumers to seek domestic alternatives, with 1 in 5 (20%) actively choosing to "Buy American."
“Tariffs are materially influencing consumer behavior, leading to both timing shifts and a potential reshoring of demand,” Considine said. “Retailers may need to reassess sourcing and pricing strategies to remain competitive.”
Returns and Last-Mile Costs Under Pressure
Retailers are also contending with rising return volumes and mounting delivery expenses. Nearly three-quarters of executives surveyed said per-package shipping costs have increased. As a result, many e-commerce operators are tightening return and delivery policies:
- A growing number of companies are raising minimum order thresholds for free shipping
- More retailers are requiring membership for free delivery options
- In-store pickup and returns are being emphasized to offset rising logistics costs
Despite the tightening, consumer expectations for free shipping and next-day delivery remain strong — a continued friction point for retailers seeking to protect margins.
“Carriers are feeling the pinch as shoppers reconsider and shippers diversify to lower costs,” said Marc Iampieri, Global Co-Lead of AlixPartners’ Logistics & Transportation practice. “Optimizing your distribution network is the big lever for retailers, and they are pulling it hard, adding more pressure on the carriers.”
As the tariff-driven headwinds continue to reshape the online retail landscape, companies across the supply chain may need to adapt quickly or risk falling behind. For now, the data signals a clear message: the e-commerce boom of the last decade is meeting serious resistance.
To read the full report, click here.
