Everyone in retail knows that the industry is changing fast. But the latest insights from a recent Discover webinar featuring Ethan Chernofsky, chief marketing officer at Placer.ai, and Ben Miller, vice president of original content and strategy for Shoptalk and Groceryshop, suggest that some of the changes are unexpected, and that much of the industry is struggling to keep up.
The fact that retail spending in the U.S. increased by $316 billion last year might sound like good news for the industry, for example. That’s an increase of 3.7%. But it turns out that about $80 billion of that increase went to just three companies: Amazon, Walmart and Costco.
“You take that out and everybody else, the entire rest of the U.S. retail and food service industry, grew 2.7%,” Miller said. “Last year, consumer price inflation in the U.S. was 2.7%. So the reality is that the entire rest of the industry was flat in real terms,” Miller said.
As for unexpected changes, consider the grocery industry, which has entered what Miller described as a “fascinating and dynamic” period driven by two forces that few retailers would have predicted just a few years ago.
The first is the rise of online grocery sales, particularly for fresh food, which was once considered unlikely to scale. That surge has happened in recent months, Miller noted, pointing to Brick Meets Click data that showed e-grocery sales increased 32% in December, to nearly $13 billion.
The second is the ripple effect of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which are quietly reshaping food consumption and shopping behavior. Currently just 2% to 3% of the U.S. population is on GLP-1 medications, but that number could be 20% in 10 years. And the impact on grocery is more dramatic then many realize.
“We partnered with Kantar and conducted new research,” Miller said. “It showed that if you go on and stay on a GLP-1, it prompts you to question everything about your food choices and your food shopping habits. Food shopping is very habitual. Once you have chosen a particular retailer as your main shopping destination, it’s really hard to change that. But our findings reveal that 46% of GLP-1 users have switched their primary grocery store.”
Another profound shift that is happening is about how demand is created.
For decades, stores — especially department stores — were engines of inspiration and discovery. Today, that role has migrated online. Chernofsky noted that, according to a survey Placer.ai conducted, only about 30% of retail professionals believe that physical stores are now the primary place where consumers discover new products. Instead, inspiration increasingly comes from digital channels, including social media, creators and influencers.
Both speakers pointed to generative AI and agentic commerce — autonomous digital assistants that search, recommend and purchase products on behalf of consumers — as the next major shift.
Chernofsky argued that the growth of e-commerce may provide a lesson about agentic AI’s impact on physical retail. At one point it seemed like physical stores would become extinct as e-commerce grew, but instead Placer.ai’s data shows that people are going to stores more than ever. And e-commerce can support stores, and vice versa. AI may provide similar opportunities for both physical stores and e-commerce.
But winning in this new world, just like in the old one, will be mostly about execution.
