WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation (NRF) is projecting a strong holiday shopping season this year, forecasting a 4.2% increase in retail sales during November and December compared with 2025. The trade group expects holiday sales to reach $1.013 trillion, surpassing the $972 billion spent during the 2025 holiday season, which saw a 3.1% year-over-year increase.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast reflects confidence in consumers’ willingness to spend during the holidays, even as many households remain budget-conscious.
“Consumers continue to prioritize the holiday season while carefully managing their finances,” Shay said. “Retailers are prepared with competitive pricing, value-focused offerings and a broad range of options to meet shoppers’ needs.”
According to NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews, consumer spending remains a key driver of economic activity heading into the holiday season. However, he noted that ongoing inflation, rising gasoline prices and pressure on household budgets could affect spending patterns across income levels.
Retailers are gearing up for the busy season by adding seasonal staff, though hiring plans remain measured. NRF expects retailers to bring on between 325,000 and 375,000 temporary workers this year, roughly in line with the estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs added in 2025. Employers continue to take a cautious approach amid elevated interest rates, higher consumer debt levels and ongoing inflationary pressures.
NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on economic modeling that incorporates factors including consumer spending, disposable income, employment trends, wages, inflation and monthly retail sales data. The organization’s retail sales calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to provide a clearer picture of core retail activity. NRF defines the holiday shopping season as the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
For more information, visit NRF’s Winter Holiday FAQ and Winter Holiday Headquarters.
