WASHINGTON — Retailers across the U.S. are expected to ramp up imports this summer following a temporary reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The 90-day pause, which lowers China tariffs from 145% to 30%, has opened a critical window for retailers to move previously delayed cargo. The timing coincides with the back-to-school rush and early fall-winter holiday planning, leading to what could be one of the busiest import seasons in recent years.
“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end. We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.”
Many had cut or canceled shipments after the initial April tariff hike but resumed activity when the temporary rollback and pause were announced. With reciprocal tariffs on other nations suspended until July 9, the next several months will be critical.
Imports at major U.S. ports are expected to rebound in June to 2.01 million TEU, still down 6.2% year over year. July and August are forecast at 2.13 million TEU and 1.98 million TEU, respectively — lower than 2024 levels but higher than earlier projections made before the tariff pause.
“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
Final numbers for April show ports handled 2.21 million TEU — a 9.6% increase year over year — but May is projected to have dropped to 1.91 million TEU, the lowest since December 2023.
NRF’s updated forecast now expects the first half of 2025 to hit 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7% from 2024 — a modest improvement over earlier projections made before the tariff relief.
For retailers, the window to act is short. If the administration does not take further action, the tariff pause ends August 12. The NRF continues to push for longer-term agreements to stabilize supply chains and restore predictability.
