Port imports to decline after May-June bump

WASHINGTON — Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to remain below year-over-year levels through early fall, despite a temporary increase projected for May and June, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The report said the anticipated year-over-year gains in May and June largely reflect comparisons with the sharp decline in imports that followed the April 2025 announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs.

“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” said Jonathan Gold. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”

Ben Hackett said retailers remain cautious about inventory levels amid ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett said. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”

U.S. ports tracked in the report handled 2.16 million TEU in March, up 0.6% from a year earlier and 13.6% above February levels. TEU, or Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit, is the standard measure of container cargo volume.

April imports are projected at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.6% year over year. May is forecast at 2.17 million TEU, up 11.1%, and June is expected to reach 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2%.

The report projects import volumes will turn negative again in the second half of the summer, with July forecast down 7.8%, August down 5.5% and September down 1.3% from the same months last year.

Despite the uneven monthly performance, first-half 2026 imports are expected to total 12.59 million TEU, up 0.5% from the same period in 2025.

Global Port Tracker covers major U.S. ports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Charleston on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.