WASHINGTON — For the first time in over a year and a half, U.S. import cargo volumes are expected to decline year-over-year, as new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump begin to take a measurable toll on the retail supply chain. The Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates signals a sharp shift in retail logistics, with importers pulling back amid rising costs and growing uncertainty.
“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
According to the latest projections, May import volumes will fall 12.9% year-over-year to 1.81 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), ending a 19-month streak of year-over-year growth. The trend is expected to deepen through the summer, with June volumes projected to drop 20.2%, July 23.4%, August 21.5%, and September 21.2% compared to the same months in 2024.
The steepest declines follow the April announcement of sweeping tariffs: a minimum 10% across all trading partners, so-called “reciprocal” tariffs targeting dozens of countries, and a 145% duty on Chinese imports. Retailers, especially small businesses, are pausing or canceling orders as they reassess costs and inventory needs ahead of the crucial back-to-school and holiday seasons.
Still, analysts say the system isn’t in freefall. “Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. But reports of empty container terminals, ships making U-turns in mid-voyage and that the supply chain is “broken” are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground.”
Through March, U.S. ports handled 2.15 million TEUs — an 11.3% year-over-year increase — with April projected at 2.2 million TEUs, up 9.1%. However, the impact of tariffs has slashed the 2025 first-half forecast from 12.78 million TEUs (up 5.7%) to 12.13 million TEUs (up just 0.3%).
Retailers had been front-loading imports since last summer to avoid labor disruptions and political shifts. Total imports for 2024 hit 25.5 million TEUs, up 14.7% from 2023 and just shy of the pandemic peak.
The Global Port Tracker covers key U.S. container ports across the West, East, and Gulf coasts and is available through the NRF and Hackett Associates.
