NEW YORK – Deloitte projects holiday retail sales will reach between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion from November 2026 through January 2027, marking a 4.0% to 4.8% increase over the same period a year earlier. The forecast follows a 4.1% year-over-year gain in holiday sales during the 2025 season.
Deloitte projects e-commerce sales to increase 7.5% to 8.4% year over year during the 2026-2027 holiday season, reaching between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion. The growth is expected to contribute significantly to overall retail sales, driven by consumers' continued use of digital tools, promotional offers and online comparison shopping throughout the holiday purchasing journey.
"Disposable personal income (DPI) remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast," said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. "We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales. The continued growth in e-commerce sales is also expected to be aided by consumers' ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories."
According to Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, "Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend. As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending. These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season."
